Can you estimate the number of orders Shopee Philippines might process on a day like 11.11, and walk me through your reasoning?

Situation

During the graduate development program interview, the interviewer asked me to estimate daily orders during a mega sale to test my logical thinking.

Task

I needed to break down the problem, make reasonable assumptions, and compute an estimate on the spot.

Action

I began by clarifying if they wanted orders for just Shopee Philippines or across SEA. They said Philippines. I segmented the market: total internet users in PH, e-commerce penetration, Shopee's market share, average orders per user during a sale. I assumed 70M internet users, 50% use e-commerce, 35M potential online shoppers. During a mega sale, I estimated 20% would place an order, so 7M shoppers. If average orders per shopper is 1.5, that's 10.5M orders. I cross-checked with a top-down approach: total retail market, online share, etc. My final estimate was around 10 million orders.

Result

The interviewer seemed satisfied with my structured approach and did not challenge my assumptions heavily. It demonstrated my comfort with ambiguity and quantitative reasoning.