Our client is a multinational consumer goods company considering expanding their sachet shampoo line in the Philippines. They want to understand the total annual market size (in units) for sachet shampoo in the country. How would you estimate this?
RoleManagement Consultant
DifficultyEasy
TopicTechnical
Asked at
Why This Is Asked
Bain's case interviews are based on real client work, and many consumer goods clients need market sizing to guide investment decisions. This tests analytical ability, logical structuring, comfort with numbers, and ability to make sensible assumptions under uncertainty.
General Approach
Start by clarifying the question and defining what counts as sachet shampoo. Break down the problem into population, usage, and unit per use. Use round numbers for easy math. Walk the interviewer through your thought process step by step. Be ready to adjust if they provide additional data or challenge an assumption. Show that you can think on your feet.
General Answer
Start by clarifying the question: confirm the definition covers sachet shampoo specifically, not bottled, and confirm the geographic scope is nationwide. Break the estimate into clear components: total Philippine population, the share who use shampoo regularly (a high figure, since shampoo is a near-universal hygiene product across income levels), average usage frequency per week, and sachets consumed per use occasion versus bottle users. Use round numbers throughout, for example an approximate population figure, to keep the mental math manageable, and adjust for the fact that sachets are especially dominant among lower and middle-income households due to lower upfront cost. Convert weekly or monthly usage into an annual unit total. Walk the interviewer through each step of the logic out loud, state your assumptions explicitly, and be ready to revise the estimate if given real data points or challenged on an assumption, showing you can adapt rather than defend a fixed number.
PH Interview Gotcha
Some Filipino candidates over-apologize or use hedge words like 'Siguro po, hindi ko po alam exactly pero try ko po' (Maybe, I don't know exactly but I'll try). This reads as unsure. Instead, state assumptions confidently.
Sample STAR Answer▾
S
Situation
I was asked to estimate the annual market size for sachet shampoo in the Philippines during a case interview for a consulting role. The interviewer didn't provide data, so I had to make reasonable assumptions and walk through the logic.
T
Task
My task was to structure a top-down estimation, breaking the problem into manageable components: population segments, usage frequency, and average sachet consumption per use.
A
Action
I started by assuming the Philippine population is around 110 million. I segmented by income: roughly 60% belong to the mass market (C-D-E classes) who are the primary sachet users, assuming some from B class also use sachets. That's about 70 million potential users. Then I estimated average washing frequency: Filipinos typically shampoo every other day, so 180 washes per year. Each wash uses about 1 sachet (some use half, but to simplify). Then I multiplied: 70 million * 180 = 12.6 billion sachets per year. I acknowledged this was a rough number and noted that not everyone uses shampoo (some use bar soap), and some might use more than one per wash. I then refined by segmenting: children (0-12 years) might wash daily but use smaller sachets or share, adults (13-60) stick to every other day, seniors often wash less. The refined estimate came out around 8-10 billion sachets. I also discussed what factors could adjust this, like rural vs urban usage patterns, and the shift to bottled shampoo in some segments.
R
Key Takeaway
For market-sizing cases, it's crucial to have a clear framework, verbalize assumptions, and show you can adapt when the interviewer pushes back. Even if final number is off, process matters.
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