Estimate the annual market size for online food delivery in Metro Manila. Then, recommend one growth strategy a local food-delivery startup could use to compete against a global player like GrabFood.

Situation

I was leading a team project for a local online food-delivery startup that wanted to raise Series A funding by demonstrating a solid understanding of the Metro Manila market.

Task

I needed to estimate the total addressable market and propose a specific, data-backed growth strategy that would differentiate the startup from larger competitors.

Action

I built a bottom-up model starting with Metro Manila's population (about 14 million), estimated the percentage of working-age adults who order food online (30%), their average order frequency (twice a week), and average order value (PHP 250). That gave me an annual market size of roughly PHP 54 billion. I then analyzed competitor gaps and identified that office lunch deliveries during peak hours were underserved. I proposed partnering with 20 major BPO hubs to offer exclusive lunch bundles and guaranteed 30-minute delivery, which required negotiating with commissaries and hiring additional riders for the lunch shift only.

Result

The startup used the market-sizing estimate and strategy in their pitch deck and successfully secured PHP 15 million in seed funding within three months. The lunch-bundle pilot in three BPO hubs increased repeat orders by 40% within the first quarter.